Thursday, October 14, 2010

Blazers Best Defense: a Good Offense

McMillan to Blazers. Hands up, fists out.

If you say something long enough, people start to believe it. For Nate McMillan the word is "Defense." The Blazers need to focus on Defense. Defense wins championships. Defense beats top tier NBA teams. Defense wins in the playoffs. Defense wins championships.

That's all well and good. But here's the thing: the Blazers defense if fine. What they really could use is offense.

Look at the stats.

Last season, the Blazer held opponents to an average of 94.8 points-per-game. That's good. Damn good. It's the third best average in the entire NBA. And while it's not at the level of Wundergod Wojciechowski, it's enough to include his picture in the post:

I slap therefore I am.
So that's why it puzzles me when McMillan wants the focus of the season to center around defense. The team doesn't really need it. Even without a center to center around. Think about it. The Blazers are young. They're built on a deep bench, fresh legs, smart game plans, hustle, and Nicolas Batum's gigantic wingspan.*

*It's officially measured at 84 inches, or 7-feet. But it's also been listed at 7'1'' and up to 7'4''. And while listening in on the radio during preseason games, the play-by-play guys make me believe it's somewhere in the 7'7'' range. I swear the guy can face-up a shooter near the three-point line, take a step back and tap the edge of the key. He's that gangly. And French. Don't forget he's French.

Look at the past history of points scored against the Blazers: 

2006-2007 Opposition averaged 98.4 points.
2007-2008 Opposition averaged 96.3 points.
2008-2009 Opposition averaged 94.1 points.

In every year we see a drop in the points scored against the Blazers. That's good. It shows that defense is keeping the Blazers winning through adversity.*

*And yes, I used the euphemistic word, "adversity." I'm not going to say the dreaded "I" word. I know it's stupid and based entirely on unproven superstition, and as a guy who loves stats, I know this is the hypocritical. But if you are reading this post, chances are good you watched last season. And if you watched last season, you watched the Blazers break knees faster than Barbaro broke his leg.

Now let's look at their offensive stats:

2006-2007 Blazers average of 94.1 points. (Second worst in the league)
2007-2008 Blazers average of 95.4 points. (Tied with Spurs for third worst)
2008-2009 Blazers average 99.4 points. (Shoot up out of the cellar)

Then we get to last season. It's not great. But it's not bad either. The Blazers dropped to an average of 98.1 points per game.

Bleh.

So what does this mean? Basically, the Blazers stats correspond to what most fans already know: they're a good, oh-so-good, but not a great team.

Yet.

Here's the deal with the modern NBA. To become a great team in the NBA, you need to average above 100 points a game. That's the magic average in the present world of score happy officiating. Even the big, bad, defense-wins-championship Celtics of 2007-2008 averaged 100.8 points a game. Yes, they also held opponents to 90.3 points a game, but when they needed a jolt of points they had someone that could step-up and drain. That guy was usually Paul Pierce, who we must agree, is a baller.

Paul Pierce made me do it.


That's why I don't get McMillan's defensive mantra for the 2010-2011 season... Defense! Defense! 

Defense?

No. Offense. Offense. Offense!

As a fan you want to see Bradon Roy shoot down an extra three baskets a night. You want to see LaMarcus Aldridge stomp home another alley-oop. You want to see Andre Miller prove the running floater has a place outside your church-league basketball games. You want to see your player do the incredible stuff you can only do 1 out of every 100 times in a game of horse. You want to see them score. You want points, dammit. Points.

That's why the only thing good coming out of the preseason right now is, and don't crucify me:

Rudy Fernandez. 

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